Probabilities Of Texas Holdem Hands

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Poker Hand Odds Texas Holdem
Probability Of Texas Holdem
Probability Texas Holdem Hands

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When working out hand probabilities, the main probabilities we will work with are the number of cards in the deck and the number of cards we want to be dealt. So for example, if we were going to deal out 1 card: The probability of dealing a 7 would be 1/52 - There is one 7 in a deck of 52 cards.

Introduction

Rules

A single 52-card deck is used. All cards count as its poker value. Aces may be high or low.
One player is designated as the dealer, usually with a laminated marker. This person does not have to physically deal the game. However it is important that a symbolic dealer position rotate around the table.
The player to the dealer's left must make a 'small blind' bet. The player to the left of the small blind must make a 'big blind' bet. The amounts of both blinds should be specified in advance. The purpose of the blinds is to get the ball rolling with some money in the pot.
Two cards shall be dealt down to each player, starting with the person to the dealer's left.
The player to the left of the big blind must either call or raise the big blind bet. The play in turn will go around the table according to normal poker rules, which I assume the reader already knows. Table rules will specify any limits on the size or number of allowed raises.
The small blind may also raise the big blind. If nobody raises the big blind the player making the big blind has the option to raise his own bet. The term for this is the 'big blind option.'
Three community cards will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This is called the 'flop.'
Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left.
A fourth community card will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This card is called the 'turn.'
Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left. Generally the minimum bet is double the first two rounds of betting.
A fifth and final community card will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This card is called the 'river.'
Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left. The minimum bet is generally the same as the previous round.
Each player still in the game at the end will determine the highest poker value among his own two cards and the five community cards. It is NOT a requirement that the player use both of his own cards. The player with the hand of highest poker value shall win. Following are the hand rankings.
1. Straight flush: Five consecutive and suited cards. For example 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
2. Four of a kind: Four cards of the same rank, plus any fifth card. For example Q, Q, Q, Q ,4.
3. Full house: Three of a kind and a pair. For example 6, 6, 6, J , J.
4. Flush: Any five cards of the same suit, except for a higher ranking straight flush. For example A, Q, 8, 4 , 3.
5. Straight: Five consecutive cards, except for a higher ranking straight flush. For example 8, 9, 10, J, Q.
6. Three of a kind: Three cards of the same rank, plus any other two cards. For example 5, 5, 5, Q ,2 .
7. Two pair: Two pairs, plus any fifth card. For example 8, 8, 2, 2 ,Q .
8. Pair: A pair and any other three cards. For example 7, 7, 2, 5 ,A .
9. ? High: Any five cards that do not form any higher poker hand. A king high hand for example might be K, Q, 7, 5 ,4 .
If two or more players have poker values of the same rank then the individual cards will be used to break the tie. If necessary all five cards will be considered.
I get asked a lot whether the two unused cards in a player's hand are used to break a tie. The answer is a firm NO. The two unused cards do not matter.
If a new player arrives at the table he should either wait for the big blind position or put up an amount equal to the big blind, amounting to a call of the big blind.
If a bet is made after another player runs out of money, then a separate pot is created. The player that ran out of money is not eligible to win the second pot. If more than one player runs out of money then multiple separate pots can be created.
In formal games players may not bet with cash or buy chips with cash in the middle of a hand.
There are numerous rules of etiquette, which I won't get into.
There house may set the betting rules. There are three main types. A 'structured' game features raises of specified amounts. For example a '3/6 game' would mean that raises after the deal and flop are $3, and after the turn and river are $6. There is usually a limit to the number of raises a player may make, typically three. A 'pot limit' game has structured minimum raises but the maximum raise may be anything up to the amount in the pot at the time the raise is made. A 'no limit' game also has structured minimum raises but there is no maximum raise.

Examples

Example 1

Board: A, 2, 4, 5, 6
Player 1: J, 6
Player 2: 7, Q

Player 1 wins. Both have an ace high flush, so the second highest card is considered. Player 1's jack beats player 2's 7. The only way to have a flush tie is if the flush is entirely on the board and no hole cards are higher than the lowest card on the board in the same suit.

Example 2

Board: J, A, 7, 5, 6
Player 1: 2, J
Player 2: 10, J

Player 2 wins. Both have a pair of jacks so the singletons are considered. High highet singleton in both hands is an ace so the second highest singleton is considered. Player 1's second highest singleton is a 7, compared to player 2's 10. A 10 beats a 7 so player 2 wins.

Poker Hand Odds Texas Holdem

Example 3

Board: A, A, K, Q, J
Player 1: Q, J
Player 2: Q, 2

Tie. Both have a two pair of aces and queens, with a king singleton. Some people incorrectly believe that in such cases the unused cards are considered, in this case player 1's pair of jacks beating player 2's jack/2. Only the top five cards matter. The jacks and deuce are irrelevant.

One of the most important aspects of Texas Hold'em is the value of each two-card hand before the flop. The decision of how to play your first two cards is something you face every hand, and the value of your first two cards is highly correlated to your probability of winning.

The following table shows my power rating for each initial 2-card hand in a 10-player game. The numbers are on a 0 to 40 scale. Basically, you should only play hands that are dark green, blue, or purple. Of course you should be more be more liberal in late position and picky in early position. If forced I would say you should need 10 points in late position and 19 points in early position to call the big blind. If your table is loose, as if often the case online, you can play a bit looser yourself.

Use the top table if you have a pair, the middle table if your cards are suited, and the bottom table if your cards are unsuited. Except for a pair,look up your high card along the left and your low card along the top.

Following are the links to my tables of the value of each intial hand according to the number of players. The 10-player section explains the methodology for creating the table table.

Pot Odds

The following table shows the probability of making various hands after the flop and the correct 'pot odds.' The pot odds are the breakeven ratio of money in the pot to the amount you have to bet for the player to be indifferent about calling, assuming the player would definitely win if he makes the hand (a big if) and there are no additional bets (another big if). This table is a good starting point the player should make mental adjustments for the probability of winning without making the hand, losing with making the hand, and expected future bets. The odds of a two pair improving to a full house are the same as those for four to an inside straight.

Pot Odds — After Flop

Hand	Probability of Making Hand	Pot Odds
Four to a flush	34.97%	1.86
Four to an outside straight	31.45%	2.18
Four to an inside straight	16.47%	5.07

The next table shows the pot odds after the turn.

Pot Odds — After Turn

Hand	Probability of Making Hand	Pot Odds
4 to a flush	19.57%	4.11
4 to an outside straight	17.39%	4.75
4 to an inside straight	8.70%	10.50

Hand Strength Calculator

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Internal Links

Pinapple — Strategy and analysis of which card to discard before the flop.
Bad Beat Jackpots: What is the Probability of Hitting one?
Texas Hold 'Em Dominated Hand Probabilities: What is the probability one of your opponents has similar, and better, hole cards than yours?

Ever wondered where some of those odds in the odds charts came from? In this article, I will teach you how to work out the probability of being dealt different types of preflop hands in Texas Holdem.

It's all pretty simple and you don't need to be a mathematician to work out the probabilities. I'll keep the math part as straightforward as I can to help keep this an easy-going article for the both of us.

Probability calculations quick links.

A few probability basics.

When working out hand probabilities, the main probabilities we will work with are the number of cards in the deck and the number of cards we want to be dealt. So for example, if we were going to deal out 1 card:

The probability of dealing a 7 would be 1/52 - There is one 7 in a deck of 52 cards.
The probability of dealing any Ace would be 4/52 - There four Aces in a deck of 52 cards.
The probability of dealing any would be 13/52 - There are 13 s in a deck of 52 cards.

In fact, the probability of being dealt any random card (not just the 7) would be 1/52. This also applies to the probability being dealt any random value of card like Kings, tens, fours, whatever (4/52) and the probability of being dealt any random suit (13/52).

Each card is just as likely to be dealt as any other - no special priorities in this game!

The numbers change for future cards.

A quick example... let's say we want to work out the probability of being dealt a pair of sevens.

The probability of being dealt a 7 for the first card will be 4/52.
The probability of being dealt a 7 for the second card will be 3/51.

Notice how the probability changes for the second card? After we have been dealt the first card, there is now 1 less card in the deck making it 51 cards in total. Also, after already being dealt a 7, there are now only three 7s left in the deck.

Always try and take care with the numbers for future cards. The numbers will change slightly as you go along.

Working out probabilities.

Whenever the word 'and' is used, it will usually mean multiply.
Whenever the word 'or' is used, it will usually mean add.

This won't make much sense for now, but it will make a lot of sense a little further on in the article. Trust me.

Probability of being dealt two exact cards.

Multiply the two probabilities together.

So, we want to find the probability of being dealt the A and K. (See the 'and' there?)

Probability of being dealt A - 1/52.
Probability of being dealt K - 1/51.

Now let's just multiply these bad boys together.

P = (1/52) * (1/51)
P = 1/2652

So the probability of being dealt the A and then K is 1/2652. As you might be able to work out, this is the same probability for any two exact cards, as the likelihood of being dealt A K is the same as being dealt a hand like 7 3 in that order.

But wait, we do not care about the order of the cards we are dealt!

When we are dealt a hand in Texas Hold'em, we don't care whether we get the A first or the K first (which is what we just worked out), just as long as we get them in our hand it's all the same. There are two possible combinations of being dealt this hand (A K and K A), so we simply multiply the probability by 2 to get a more useful probability.

P = 1/2652 * 2
P = 1/1326

You might notice that because of this, we have also worked out that there are 1,326 possible combinations of starting hands in Texas Holdem. Cool huh?

Probability of being dealt a certain hand.

Two exact cards is all well and good, but what if we want to work out the chances of being dealt AK, regardless of specific suits and whatnot? Well, we just do the same again...

Multiply the two probabilities together.

So, we want to find the probability of being dealt any Ace andany King.

Probability of being dealt any Ace - 4/52.
Probability of being dealt any King - 4/51 (after we've been dealt our Ace, there are now 51 cards left).

P = (4/52) * (4/51)
P = 16/2652 = 1/166

However, again with the 2652 number we are working out the probability of being deal an Ace and then a King. If we want the probability of being dealt either in any order, there are two possible ways to make this AK combination so we multiply the probability by 2.

P = 16/2652 * 2
P = 32/2652
P = 1/83

The probability of being dealt any AK as opposed to an AK with exact suits is more probable as we would expect. A lot more probable in fact. Also, as you might guess, this probability of 1/83 will be the same for any two value of cards like; AQ, JT, 34, J2 and so on regardless of whether they are suited or not.

Probability of being dealt a range of hands.

Work out each individual hand probability and add them together.

What's the probability of being dealt AA or KK? (Spot the 'or' there? - Time to add.)

Probability of being dealt AA - 1/221 (4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221).
Probability of being dealt KK - 1/221 (4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221).

P = (1/221) + (1/221)
P = 2/221 = 1/110

Easy enough. If you want to add more possible hands in to the range, just work out their individual probability and add them in. So if we wanted to work out the odds of being dealt AA, KK or 7 3...

Probability of being dealt AA - 1/221 (4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221).
Probability of being dealt KK - 1/221 (4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221).
Probability of being dealt 7 3 - 1/1326 ([1/52 * 1/51] * 2 = 1/1326).

P = (1/221) + (1/221) + (1/1326)
P = 359/36465 = 1/102

This one definitely takes more skill with adding fractions because of the different denominators, but you get the idea. I'm just teaching hand probabilities here, so I'm not going to go in to adding fractions in this article for now! This fractions calculator is really handy for adding those trickier probabilities quickly though.

Overview of working out hand probabilities.

Hopefully that's enough information and examples to allow you to go off and work out the probabilities of being dealt various hands and ranges of hands before the flop in Texas Holdem. The best way to learn how to work out probabilities is to actually try and work it out for yourself, otherwise the maths part will just go in one ear and out the other.

Probability Of Texas Holdem

I guess this article isn't really going to do much for improving your game, but it's still pretty interesting to know the odds of being dealt different types of hands.

I'm sure that some of you reading this article were not aware that the probability of being dealt AA were exactly the same as the probability of being dealt 22! Well, now you know - it's 1/221.

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